{"id":837,"date":"2019-10-24T19:07:53","date_gmt":"2019-10-24T17:07:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/?p=837"},"modified":"2019-12-05T17:49:30","modified_gmt":"2019-12-05T16:49:30","slug":"zlato-versus-akcie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/zlato-versus-akcie\/","title":{"rendered":"Zlato versus akcie \u2013 kdo byl v\u00fdnosn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a kdo rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Pom\u00e1hal jsem poradce p\u0159ipravit na povinnou zkou\u0161ku podle z\u00e1kona ZPKT. Na \u0161kolen\u00ed jsme narazili na ot\u00e1zku, jestli m\u00e1 zlato ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed\/vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed historick\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy ne\u017e akcie a jestli m\u00e1 ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed\/vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed m\u00edru rizika ne\u017e akcie. Kolem ot\u00e1zky se vedla debata. Pod\u00edvejme se, jak to tedy je.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>V sad\u011b ot\u00e1zek \u010cNB pro zkou\u0161ky je ot\u00e1zka: jak\u00e9 jsou charakteristiky investice do zlata ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0investov\u00e1n\u00edm do fond\u016f akci\u00ed vysp\u011bl\u00fdch trh\u016f v\u00a0dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu:<\/p>\n<p>a)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Zlato m\u00e1 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy a\u00a0v\u00edce kol\u00eds\u00e1 ne\u017e akciov\u00e9 fondy<br \/>\nb)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Zlato m\u00e1 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy a\u00a0m\u00e9n\u011b kol\u00eds\u00e1 ne\u017e akciov\u00e9 fondy<br \/>\nc)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Zlato m\u00e1 ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy a\u00a0v\u00edce kol\u00eds\u00e1 ne\u017e akciov\u00e9 fondy<br \/>\nd)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Zlato m\u00e1 ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy a\u00a0m\u00e9n\u011b kol\u00eds\u00e1 ne\u017e akciov\u00e9 fondy<\/p>\n<p>M\u016f\u017eete si zkusit tipnout nebo si m\u016f\u017eete odpov\u011b\u010f p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst v\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Akcie dosahovaly vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f<\/strong><\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_163518\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-163518\" style=\"width: 581px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-163518 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/Porovnani_vyvoje_cen_zlata_a_akcii.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"581\" height=\"329\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-163518\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Akcie \u2013 index MSCI World (v\u010detn\u011b dividendy) v\u00a0USD, zdroj:MSCI.com, Zlato \u2013 cena zlata v\u00a0USD, zdroj: datahub.io<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd v\u00fdnos (p.a.):<br \/>\n\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Zlato + 7,7\u00a0%<br \/>\n\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Akcie + 8,8\u00a0% p.a.<\/p>\n<p>P\u0159i porovn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdnos\u016f ale hraje velkou roli to, na jak\u00e9 obdob\u00ed se d\u00edv\u00e1me. Vzali jsme obdob\u00ed od roku 1970, kter\u00e9 je zlatu p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1me tedy v\u00a0dob\u011b, kdy zlato nebylo pln\u011b voln\u011b obchodovan\u00e9 a\u00a0kdy m\u011blo fixn\u00ed kurz. Na po\u010d\u00e1tku 70.let do\u0161lo k\u00a0velk\u00fdm finan\u010dn\u00edm zm\u011bn\u00e1m (nap\u0159\u00edklad konec Bretonwwodsk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu), co\u017e vedlo k\u00a0r\u016fstu cen zlata z\u00a035$ na 164$, tedy skoro 5n\u00e1sobek.<\/p>\n<p>Ceny zlata porovn\u00e1v\u00e1me s\u00a0v\u00fdvojem sv\u011btov\u00fdch akci\u00ed, m\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm indexem MSCI World. Jedn\u00e1 se tedy o\u00a0sv\u011btov\u00e9 akcie, nikoli pouze americk\u00e9. Bereme tedy co nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed diverzifikaci a\u00a0co nejlep\u0161\u00edho reprezentanta, abychom popsali sv\u011btov\u00e9 akcie. U\u00a0index\u016f nezapom\u00edn\u00e1me na dividendu, co\u017e je \u010dast\u00fd ne\u0161var n\u011bkter\u00fdch porovn\u00e1n\u00ed. Pokud chci cokoli porovnat s\u00a0v\u00fdnosem akci\u00ed, nesm\u00edm na dividendy zapom\u00ednat.<\/p>\n<p>Kdy\u017e se vr\u00e1t\u00edme k\u00a0ot\u00e1zce, m\u016f\u017eeme za spr\u00e1vnou odpov\u011b\u010f ozna\u010dit tu, kter\u00e1 p\u0159isuzuje akci\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy, ne\u017e m\u00e1 zlato. Plat\u00ed to pro horizont 40 let, plat\u00ed to pro v\u011bt\u0161inu krat\u0161\u00edch horizont\u016f. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b najdeme nap\u0159\u00edklad 10let\u00e1 obdob\u00ed, kdy zlato m\u011blo vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Zlato m\u00e1 tak\u00e9 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed riziko<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><strong> I kdy\u017e ho m\u011b\u0159\u00edme r\u016fzn\u00fdmi zp\u016fsoby.\u00a0<\/strong>Riziko se ve financ\u00edch \u010dasto m\u011b\u0159\u00ed volatilitou m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fdnosnost\u00ed. Pro kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd pohled je to pou\u017eiteln\u00fd parametr, pro dlouh\u00e1 obdob\u00ed nikoli.<\/p>\n<p>Podle rizika jako m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed volatility v\u00fdnos\u016f je zlato rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Volatilita akci\u00ed = 14,56\u00a0% p.a.<br \/>\n\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Volatilita zlata = 17,44\u00a0% p.a.<\/p>\n<p>Jak jsme na tom p\u0159i\u00a0pohledu na dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed riziko? V\u00fdnosy (ceny) kter\u00e9ho aktiva dlouhodob\u011b v\u00edce kol\u00edsaj\u00ed?<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_163519\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-163519\" style=\"width: 581px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-163519 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/Porovnani_desetiletych_vynosu_zlata_a_akcii.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"581\" height=\"329\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-163519\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Akcie \u2013 index MSCI World (v\u010detn\u011b dividendy) v\u00a0USD, zdroj:MSCI.com, Zlato \u2013 cena zlata v\u00a0USD, zdroj: datahub.io. Datum na grafu znamen\u00e1 konec desetilet\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Akcie maj\u00ed vyrovnan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed statistiku 10let\u00fdch v\u00fdnos\u016f. 10let\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy byly:<\/p>\n<p>\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 pro akcie -2,5\u00a0% p.a. a\u017e 20\u00a0% p.a.,<br \/>\n\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 pro zlato \u2013 5,6\u00a0% a\u017e 34,5\u00a0% p.a.<\/p>\n<p>Zlato m\u00e1 op\u011bt vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed rozptyly v\u00fdnos\u016f a\u00a0jeho 10let\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy jsou tak volatiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, tedy rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Jen pro zaj\u00edmavost, v\u00fdnos \u2013 5,6\u00a0% p.a. po\u00a0dobu 10 let znamen\u00e1 celkov\u00fd pokles investice o\u00a044\u00a0%. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee p\u0159i\u00a0investici do zlata jste tak\u00e9 n\u011bkdy m\u011bli z\u00a0investovan\u00fdch 10\u00a0000 USD jen 5600 USD.<\/p>\n<p>Je\u0161t\u011b zaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed pohled na to, jak \u010dasto byly 10let\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy z\u00e1porn\u00e9:<br \/>\n\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Akcie na 10 letech prod\u011blaly jen ve 3\u00a0% p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f, v\u00a097\u00a0% byly kladn\u00e9,<br \/>\n\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Zlato prod\u011blalo na 10let\u00e9m horizontu ve 28\u00a0% p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f.<\/p>\n<p>Pokud je pro klienta riziko, \u017ee p\u0159ijde o\u00a0pen\u00edze (v\u00a0horizontu 10 let), pak je zlato op\u011bt rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed investic\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Akcie byly na 10 letech ve ztr\u00e1t\u011b jen v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u011b (ve 3\u00a0% p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f), zlato daleko \u010dast\u011bji (28\u00a0% p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f). <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Zlatu by nic nepomohlo ani prota\u017een\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00edho horizontu na 15 nebo 20 let. Na t\u011bchto horizontech byly akcie v\u017edy v\u00a0zisku, zlato bylo \u010dasto (asi v\u00a0\u00bc p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f) ve ztr\u00e1t\u011b.<\/p>\n<p>Spr\u00e1vn\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka z\u00a0testu pro zkou\u0161ky dle ZPKT je, \u017ee zlato bylo dlouhodob\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b v\u00fdnosn\u00e9 a\u00a0v\u00edce rizikov\u00e9 ne\u017e investice do sv\u011btov\u00fdch akci\u00ed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>M\u016f\u017eete si zkusit tipnout nebo si m\u016f\u017eete odpov\u011b\u010f p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst v\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":841,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[26,6],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Zlato versus akcie \u2013 kdo byl v\u00fdnosn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a kdo rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed? 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