{"id":1728,"date":"2021-03-09T11:14:42","date_gmt":"2021-03-09T10:14:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/?p=1728"},"modified":"2022-03-31T10:54:00","modified_gmt":"2022-03-31T08:54:00","slug":"shiller-pe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/shiller-pe\/","title":{"rendered":"Shillerovo P\/E \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee jsou akcie drah\u00e9. Jak je to doopravdy?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201eDomn\u00edv\u00e1m se, \u017ee valuace podce\u0148ujete. Kdy pro v\u00e1s budou akcie p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 drah\u00e9, abyste je p\u0159estali p\u0159eva\u017eovat v portfoli\u00edch va\u0161ich klient\u016f?<\/em>\u201c<\/p>\n

S t\u011bmito dotazy a koment\u00e1\u0159i se setk\u00e1v\u00e1me pom\u011brn\u011b \u010dasto. Obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 nyn\u00ed, v dob\u00e1ch, kdy jsou indexy na maximech, m\u00e1me za sebou pom\u011brn\u011b rychl\u00fd r\u016fst o 40 % z pokles\u016f v b\u0159eznu 2020 a n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed mluv\u00ed o bublin\u011b<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Lid\u00e9 se pod\u00edvaj\u00ed na ukazatel Shillerova P\/E a m\u016f\u017ee se jim zd\u00e1t, \u017ee akcie jsou drah\u00e9<\/a>. Jak je to doopravdy?<\/p>\n

Ukazatel P\/E<\/h2>\n

Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed ukazatel pro hodnocen\u00ed, zda jsou akcie drah\u00e9 nebo levn\u00e9 je ukazatel P\/E<\/a> (anglicky Price to Earnings).\u00a0Tento ukazatel vyjad\u0159uje, jak\u00fd je pom\u011br ceny za jednu akcii ku zisku jedn\u00e9 akcie.<\/p>\n

Ukazatel P\/E se d\u00edv\u00e1 na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cenu a aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed zisky. Cena se m\u011bn\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00fd den. Zisky firmy reportuj\u00ed jednou za \u010dtvrt roku a v\u017edy a\u017e zp\u011btn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Proto jen samotn\u00fd jednoduch\u00fd ukazatel P\/E nesta\u010d\u00ed…<\/p>\n

Shillerovo P\/E<\/h2>\n

Tento ukazatel P\/E vynalezl americk\u00fd ekonom, profesor Robert Shiller. Op\u011bt je vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n z ceny (P – Price) a zisku (E – Earnings). Zisk se v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Shillerova P\/E bere za posledn\u00edch 10 let a o\u010di\u0161\u0165uje se o inflaci.<\/p>\n

Shillerovu P\/E se take \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 cyklicky o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00e1 ziskovost, CAPE nebo P\/E 10.<\/p>\n

Kdybychom u klasick\u00e9ho P\/E brali zisk ka\u017ed\u00fd rok, tak se\u00a0 v n\u011bkter\u00fdch letech hodn\u011b dramaticky m\u011bn\u00ed. A n\u00e1sledn\u011b l\u00edt\u00e1 hodn\u011b nahoru a dol\u016f.<\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad v roce 2009 by ukazatel b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho P\/E ukazoval, \u017ee jsou akcie extr\u00e9mn\u011b drah\u00e9. Proto\u017ee sice ceny klesly, ale zisky klesly je\u0161t\u011b daleko v\u00edc. Tak\u017ee to vypadalo, \u017ee jsou \u201ep\u0159edra\u017een\u00e9\u201c. Ohl\u00e9dnut\u00edm zp\u011bt v\u00edme, \u017ee realita byla jin\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Ukazatel Shillerova P\/E vych\u00e1z\u00ed z 10 let a to trochu odfiltruje kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd vliv.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed graf,\u00a0 je vid\u011bt, \u017ee hodnota Shillerova P\/E je 35. A v\u00edce to bylo jen v roce 2000.<\/p>\n

A lid\u00e9 se tedy ptaj\u00ed, jestli nejsme zase v roce 2000. Nenafukuje se op\u011bt bublina?<\/p>\n

\"\"
Zdroj: https:\/\/www.multpl.com\/shiller-pe<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed lid\u00e9 se pod\u00edvaj\u00ed na graf a \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed:<\/p>\n

Pod\u00edvejte se na tohle Shillerovo P\/E. Profesor Shiller v podstat\u011b p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl bublinu v roce 2000. Upozor\u0148oval na ni. Upozor\u0148oval na to iracion\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 tehdy na trhu nastalo. A pak znovu upozor\u0148oval na podobn\u00e9 \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed u nemovitost\u00ed v roce 2009. Pod\u00edvejte se. Ukazatel tohohle \u010dlov\u011bka je takhle vysoko. A je vlastn\u011b d\u00edky tomu nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd.<\/em><\/p>\n

Nebezpe\u010d\u00ed sledov\u00e1n\u00ed jen tohoto ukazatele<\/h2>\n

Shillerovo P\/E a obecn\u011b sledov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fadaj\u016f z historie m\u00e1 v sob\u011b n\u011bkolik nebezpe\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Cena je jasn\u00e1. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b P\/E se vezme cena akciov\u00e9ho titulu nebo cel\u00e9ho indexu S&P500. Ten m\u016f\u017eeme lehce dohledat pro ka\u017ed\u00fd den do minulosti.<\/p>\n

Pak jsou ale zisky. A tam u\u017e to tak jednozna\u010dn\u00e9 nen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u00da\u010detn\u00ed standardy se m\u011bn\u00ed<\/h2>\n

Vypov\u00eddac\u00ed hodnota \u010d\u00edsla zisk\u016f se m\u011bn\u00ed. Hlavn\u011b z toho d\u016fvodu, \u017ee pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u011b doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke zm\u011bn\u00e1m \u00fa\u010detn\u00edch standard\u016f, podle kter\u00fdch firmy zisky reportuj\u00ed. Pr\u00e1v\u011b v \u00fa\u010detn\u00edch standardech do\u0161lo za posledn\u00edch 20-30 let ke zm\u011bn\u00e1m.<\/p>\n

Detailn\u011b to rozeb\u00edraj\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nky Shiller\u016fv indik\u00e1tor tentokr\u00e1t vys\u00edl\u00e1 fale\u0161n\u00fd sign\u00e1l o akci\u00edch<\/strong> (Wall Street Journal<\/a>) a Pro\u010d hodnotov\u00e9 investov\u00e1n\u00ed na trz\u00edch st\u00e1le funguje<\/strong> (Financial Times<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Pokud tedy \u010d\u00edslo dne\u0161n\u00edch zisk\u016f porovn\u00e1v\u00e1me se zisky firem p\u0159ed 50 lety, to srovn\u00e1n\u00ed nen\u00ed p\u0159esn\u00e9. Zisky firem v t\u00e9to dob\u011b vych\u00e1z\u00ed d\u00edky n\u011bkter\u00fdm v\u011bcem ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed. Porovn\u00e1v\u00e1me tak \u010d\u00edsla, kter\u00e1 jsou do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry nesrovnateln\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Te\u010f to sice vypad\u00e1, \u017ee trh je dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e byl do 90.let. Ale proto\u017ee se tehdy zisky po\u010d\u00edtaly trochu jinak, to srovn\u00e1n\u00ed je nep\u0159esn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Na druhou stranu je vid\u011bt, \u017ee akcie ur\u010dit\u011b nejsou levn\u00e9<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Shiller \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee nen\u00ed d\u016fvod prod\u00e1vat akcie<\/h2>\n

A zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 je tak\u00e9 to, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edmo profesor Shiller, v jednom \u010dl\u00e1nku z prosince 2020 \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee podle n\u011bj akcie nejsou nijak drah\u00e9. A nejsou ani p\u0159edra\u017een\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Co\u017e je docela zaj\u00edmav\u00e9. S\u00e1m pan Shiller \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee by se z akci\u00ed nestahoval. \u017de na akci\u00edch nevid\u00ed bublinu. Je to autor toho ukazatele, na kter\u00fd lid\u00e9 \u010dasto ukazuj\u00ed, a p\u0159esto \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee to s akciemi nen\u00ed tak zl\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Forbes.com<\/a> z toho ud\u011blal senza\u010dn\u00ed titulek: Nositel Nobelovy ceny \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, akciov\u00fd trh je nejv\u00edc atraktivn\u00ed od roku 1980<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Proto\u017ee si je v\u011bdom omezen\u00ed sv\u00e9ho ukazatele, zavedl te\u010f jin\u00fd syst\u00e9m, jak ho po\u010d\u00edtat. A to tak, \u017ee za\u010dal do ukazatele zahrnovat i \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby.<\/p>\n

Ziskovost firem ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami<\/h2>\n

Na\u0161i klienti n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed obr\u00e1zek znaj\u00ed. Za\u0159azujeme ho pravideln\u011b do na\u0161ich informac\u00edch o fundamentech trhu.<\/p>\n

D\u00edv\u00e1me se na zisky (op\u011bt jsou to zisky za 10 let o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 o inflaci). Krom\u011b toho od nich ale ode\u010d\u00edt\u00e1me \u00farokovou sazbu.<\/p>\n

A d\u00edv\u00e1me se, jak se vyv\u00edj\u00ed ziskovost firem ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami.<\/p>\n

N\u011bkdy se tomu tak\u00e9 \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 \u201erizikov\u00e1 pr\u00e9mie na akci\u00edch<\/strong>\u201c. To je ta modr\u00e1 linka.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Zdroj: http:\/\/www.econ.yale.edu\/~shiller\/data.htm<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Na modr\u00e9 lince je vid\u011bt, \u017ee v tuhle chv\u00edli nejsme nikde bl\u00edzko extr\u00e9m\u016f.<\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad v roce 2001 byla rizikov\u00e1 pr\u00e9mie na akci\u00edch dokonce z\u00e1porn\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Americk\u00e9 desetilet\u00e9 dluhopisy vyn\u00e1\u0161ely v\u00edce, ne\u017e byla ziskovost akci\u00ed za posledn\u00edch 10 let o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00e1 o inflaci.<\/p>\n

Zelen\u00e1 p\u0159eru\u0161ovan\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra ukazuje n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed 10let\u00fd nadv\u00fdnos akci\u00ed nad dluhopisy.<\/p>\n

A je tady vid\u011bt, \u017ee tohle spolu souvis\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e jsou zisky akci\u00ed, tedy to o kolik pr\u00e9mie p\u0159ekon\u00e1vaj\u00ed dluhopisy, vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, vede to k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdnos\u016fm akci\u00ed.<\/p>\n

A naopak. Kdy\u017e jsou hodn\u011b n\u00edzko, vede to k hor\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdsledk\u016fm akci\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s dluhopisy jsou akcie zaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed<\/h2>\n

Vid\u00edme, \u017ee dnes je hodnota 3,4% a to nen\u00ed zl\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Neznamen\u00e1 to ale, \u017ee akcie jsou levn\u00e9. To ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b nejsou.<\/p>\n

Ale dluhopisy maj\u00ed tak n\u00edzk\u00e9 sazby, jin\u00fdmi slovy dluhopisy jsou tak drah\u00e9, \u017ee akcie jsou proti nim po\u0159\u00e1d je\u0161t\u011b zaj\u00edmav\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Kdy tedy vlastn\u011b za\u010dneme \u0159\u00edkat, \u017ee u akci\u00ed z n\u011bjak\u00e9ho p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017een\u00ed p\u0159ejdeme na neutr\u00e1l?<\/h3>\n

To by mohlo nastat v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, kdyby sazby dluhopis\u016f vyrostly t\u0159eba o 2-3%.<\/p>\n

A p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eily se k zisku na akcie. To by pro n\u00e1s byl impulz, \u017ee akcie jsou v\u016f\u010di dluhopis\u016fm drah\u00e9. A \u017ee bychom k nim mohli zm\u011bnit stanovisko.<\/p>\n

Na konci \u00fanora se o r\u016fstu sazby dluhopis\u016f sice psalo, ale ur\u010dit\u011b tato situace nehrozila.<\/p>\n

Aktu\u00e1ln\u011b jsou sazby u 10let\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f lehce p\u0159es 1%. Sazby by musely zn\u011bkolikan\u00e1sobit, aby se dostaly na hodnotu 3-4.<\/p>\n

Takov\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst ur\u010dit\u011b nep\u0159ijde v kr\u00e1tk\u00e9m horizontu. To se m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t v horizontu dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Pokud se bude zvy\u0161ovat inflace a z\u00e1rove\u0148 to bude vypadat, \u017ee je dobr\u00e1 situace na trz\u00edch, tak m\u016f\u017ee v pr\u016fb\u011bhu roku dal\u0161\u00ed procento nasko\u010dit. Ale nehroz\u00ed, \u017ee by se to stalo rychle.<\/p>\n

Akcie nejsou drah\u00e9<\/h2>\n

Autor ukazatele Shiller P\/E, kter\u00fd \u0159ada lid\u00ed pova\u017euje za ur\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed, jestli jsou akcie drah\u00e9, \u0159\u00edk\u00e1:<\/p>\n

\u201eAkcie nejsou drah\u00e9. Pod\u00edvejte se, jak jsou na tom akcie k sazb\u00e1m.<\/em>\u201c<\/p>\n

To je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br. My to v na\u0161ich anal\u00fdz\u00e1ch pro klienty \u0159\u00edk\u00e1me obdobn\u011b. A \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 to i tato sv\u011btov\u00e1 autorita.<\/p>\n

Jak tomu ale v\u011b\u0159it?<\/h2>\n

Posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolik let se bav\u00edme o investov\u00e1n\u00ed do akci\u00ed, a tak je p\u0159irozen\u00e9, \u017ee n\u011bkoho napadne…<\/p>\n

P\u0159edkl\u00e1d\u00e1te argumenty, kter\u00e9 v\u00e1m hraj\u00ed do karet. T\u011bch argument\u016f je ale v\u00edc. A existuj\u00ed i ty, kter\u00e9 \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee akcie jsou drah\u00e9.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u010cemu tedy v\u011b\u0159it?<\/p>\n

1) M\u00e1me jinou motivaci<\/h2>\n

Pro n\u00e1s nen\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, kolik maj\u00ed na\u0161i klienti v akci\u00edch. Nem\u00e1me \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd c\u00edl, m\u00edt co nejv\u00edc v akci\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Pro n\u00e1s je <\/strong> z dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska <\/strong>d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 hodnotit spr\u00e1vn\u011b situaci na trz\u00edch.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nem\u00e1me ambici \u0159e\u0161it kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 pohyby. To se ned\u00e1 prakticky odhadnout, mo\u017en\u00e1 se \u0161t\u011bst\u00edm ano. O to se ale nesna\u017e\u00edme.<\/p>\n

My se sna\u017e\u00edme s na\u0161imi klienty investovat dlouhodob\u011b. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed na\u0161\u00edm c\u00edlem m\u00edt co nejv\u00edc pen\u011bz v akci\u00edch. Nem\u00e1me \u017e\u00e1dnou provizi z toho, \u017ee si n\u011bkdo koup\u00ed akcie, akciov\u00fd fond nebo ETF.<\/p>\n

M\u00e1me odm\u011bnu p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b ze zisku, kter\u00fd na\u0161im klient\u016fm vygenerujeme.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Na\u0161im c\u00edlem nen\u00ed ospravedlnit, pro\u010d nejsou akcie drah\u00e9. N\u00e1\u0161 c\u00edl je akcie redukovat a chr\u00e1nit dosa\u017een\u00fd zisk v okam\u017eiku, kdy\u017e n\u00e1m p\u0159ijde, \u017ee jsou drah\u00e9.<\/p>\n

To je prvn\u00ed v\u011bc.<\/p>\n

2) Nic nen\u00ed jednozna\u010dn\u00e9<\/h2>\n

Druh\u00e1 v\u011bc je, \u017ee \u0159ada argument\u016f stoj\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b na Shillerov\u011b P\/E.<\/p>\n

S\u00e1m jeho autor ale p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed a \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201ePozor, m\u00e1 svoje nev\u00fdhody. M\u00e1 sv\u00e9 mouchy.<\/em>\u201c<\/p>\n

To je podobn\u00e9 i s jin\u00fdmi argumenty, kter\u00e9 \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee akcie jsou drah\u00e9, ale v\u017edycky je to jenom takov\u00fd prvn\u00ed jednoduch\u00fd pohled.<\/p>\n

Sta\u010d\u00ed j\u00edt trochu v\u00edc do hloubky a zjist\u00edme, \u017ee v\u011bci nejsou tak jednozna\u010dn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Proto se v\u017edycky sna\u017e\u00edme j\u00edt v\u00edc do hloubky. D\u011blat je\u0161t\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed krok. A d\u00edvat se v\u00edce pod povrch. To je druh\u00e1 v\u011bc.<\/p>\n

3) Nikdy nespol\u00e9h\u00e1me na jeden sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/h2>\n

Jsme sice \u201ep\u0159ev\u00e1\u017eeni\u201c v akci\u00edch, ale je\u0161t\u011b m\u016f\u017eeme b\u00fdt \u201esiln\u011b p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017eeni\u201c v akci\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Vn\u00edm\u00e1me na trhu r\u016fzn\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e toho, co se m\u016f\u017ee d\u00edt.<\/p>\n

\u0158ekn\u011bme, \u017ee jeden ze z\u00e1kladn\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f je, \u017ee p\u0159ed n\u00e1mi nen\u00ed krize<\/strong>. Ano, m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ed n\u00e1mi b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b r\u016fst.<\/p>\n

V tom p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 b\u00fdt z dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska zainvestov\u00e1n v akci\u00edch. A je ur\u010dit\u011b zaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed b\u00fdt zainvestov\u00e1n v akci\u00edch ne\u017e v dluhopisech.<\/p>\n

Pracujeme i s dal\u0161\u00edmi sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i.<\/p>\n

Pracujeme s t\u00edm, \u017ee p\u0159ijde vysok\u00e1 inflace<\/strong> nebo naopak deflace<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

A samoz\u0159ejm\u011b pracujeme tak\u00e9 se sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em, \u017ee p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017e\u00edme n\u011bjakou velkou krizi<\/strong>, kter\u00e1 n\u011bkde bubl\u00e1.<\/p>\n

To se m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t kdykoliv. Stejn\u011b jako vloni v lednu a v \u00fanoru jsme nevid\u011bli, \u017ee p\u0159ijde propad. Nevid\u011bli jsme, \u017ee se budou zav\u00edrat ekonomiky a p\u0159ijde pokles, kter\u00fd p\u0159i\u0161el.<\/p>\n

Nezn\u00e1me budoucnost, ale m\u00e1me sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, co budeme d\u011blat, kdy\u017e se n\u011bco takov\u00e9ho stane.<\/p>\n

V\u00edme, v jak\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b budeme akcie nakupovat, abychom zv\u00fd\u0161ili jejich pod\u00edl. P\u0159i jak\u00fdch hodnot\u00e1ch bychom je siln\u011b p\u0159eva\u017eovali.<\/p>\n

V\u00edme tak\u00e9, v jak\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b budeme akcie prod\u00e1vat, abychom jich v portfoliu nem\u011bli moc. Kdy je budeme redukovat a t\u0159eba i podva\u017eovat.<\/p>\n

Jsme p\u0159ipraveni na r\u016fzn\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, nesna\u017e\u00edme se spol\u00e9hat jen na jeden. A to doporu\u010dujeme d\u011blat i ostatn\u00edm.\u00a0Pod\u00edvat se v\u017edycky na v\u00edce mo\u017enost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

M\u00e1me z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, ale pak sledujeme i dal\u0161\u00ed. A v\u00edme, co budeme d\u011blat, kdy\u017e nastanou.<\/p>\n

To je velmi d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd aspekt investov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jen akcie a dluhopisy?<\/h2>\n

Kdy\u017e se bav\u00edme o finan\u010dn\u00edch aktivech, m\u00e1me v podstat\u011b pouze 2 n\u00e1stroje, kter\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me. A to akcie a dluhopisy.<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka zn\u00ed, jestli n\u011bjak\u00fd ukazatel nebo n\u00e1zor m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt dostate\u010dn\u00fd vliv na to, abychom akcie \u00fapln\u011b st\u00e1hli z portfolia nebo je nahradili n\u011b\u010d\u00edm jin\u00fdm.<\/p>\n

Ano, akcie a dluhopisy jsou z\u00e1kladn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1stroje. M\u00e1 je v portfoliu ka\u017ed\u00fd n\u00e1\u0161 klient. Pom\u011br mezi nimi je pro ka\u017ed\u00e9ho z nich individu\u00e1ln\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Budouc\u00ed renti\u00e9\u0159i maj\u00ed p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b akcie<\/h3>\n

U klient\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed maj\u00ed prvn\u00ed miliony a buduj\u00ed majetek, ze kter\u00e9ho jednoho dne budou \u010derpat rentu, je pom\u011br akci\u00ed dlouhodob\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

D\u016fvodem je to, \u017ee p\u0159ed sebou maj\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b 10-15 let, kdy budou pravideln\u011b investovat. A pokud v tom obdob\u00ed nastane krize, nem\u00e1 to na n\u011b takov\u00fd vliv. Proto\u017ee v\u011bt\u0161inu sv\u00fdch pen\u011bz zainvestuj\u00ed teprve v budoucnu.<\/p>\n

Pokud p\u0159ijde krize, je to pro n\u011b naopak v\u00fdhoda. Mohou d\u00edky n\u00ed akcie nakupovat levn\u011bji.<\/p>\n

Renti\u00e9\u0159i mus\u00ed b\u00fdt konzervativn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed<\/h3>\n

U na\u0161ich klient\u016f, renti\u00e9r\u016f, s des\u00edtkami a stovkami milion\u016f, je situace jin\u00e1. Nep\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me, \u017ee by p\u0159ich\u00e1zely nov\u00e9 pen\u00edze. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me, \u017ee sp\u00ed\u0161 budou rentu vyb\u00edrat.<\/p>\n

U renti\u00e9r\u016f je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, jak\u00fd maj\u00ed rizikov\u00fd profil. Podle n\u011bj m\u00e1me nastavenu neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed alokaci. Tzn. kdybychom o trhu nev\u011bd\u011bli nic, nebo se trh pohyboval v rozumn\u00fdch p\u00e1smech, tak budeme m\u00edt neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed alokaci.<\/p>\n

X pen\u011bz v akci\u00edch a Y v dluhopisech a Z v hotovosti.<\/p>\n

M\u016f\u017eeme \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee dluhopisy a hotovost jsou si trochu podobn\u00e9, proto\u017ee hotovost jsou jenom hodn\u011b kra\u0165ou\u010dk\u00e9 dluhopisy.<\/p>\n

P\u016fj\u010d\u00edm pen\u00edze bance a m\u016f\u017eu si je vz\u00edt kdykoliv zp\u00e1tky.\u00a0Zat\u00edmco u b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f je doba, ne\u017e z\u00edsk\u00e1m pen\u00edze zp\u011bt del\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Akcie, dluhopisy a hotovost jsou z\u00e1klad na\u0161\u00ed alokace.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se n\u00e1m zd\u00e1, \u017ee akcie jsou atraktivn\u00ed, tak je p\u0159eva\u017eujeme. A m\u00e1me jich v portfoliu v\u00edce.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e by se n\u00e1m zd\u00e1lo, \u017ee jsou hodn\u011b drah\u00e9, tak je naopak budeme podva\u017eovat. Nebo siln\u011b podva\u017eovat.<\/p>\n

Kam jinam ne\u017e do akci\u00ed?<\/h2>\n

Za\u010dali jsme tento \u010dl\u00e1nek diskuz\u00ed o tom, jestli jsou akcie drah\u00e9 nebo levn\u00e9. My si mysl\u00edme, \u017ee akcie drah\u00e9 nejsou. Pr\u00e1v\u011b v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s dluhopisy. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b n\u011bkdo jin\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt jin\u00fd n\u00e1zor.<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka je, co s pen\u011bzi, kdy\u017e je ned\u00e1m do akci\u00ed?<\/p>\n

My s klienty neinvestujeme do zlata, komodit, kryptom\u011bn apod. A to z jednoduch\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd z t\u011bchto n\u00e1stroj\u016f negeneruje pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u00fd v\u00fdnos.<\/p>\n

Zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed n\u00e1m 2 mo\u017enosti<\/h3>\n

Bu\u010f m\u016f\u017eeme j\u00edt do hotovosti, tzn. nechat pen\u00edze le\u017eet a \u010dekat, \u017ee p\u0159ijde p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost. Nebo \u017ee trh propadne. To m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pom\u011brn\u011b drah\u00e9 a r\u016fzn\u00e9 studie ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee tento p\u0159\u00edstup se nemus\u00ed vyplatit.<\/p>\n

Nebo m\u016f\u017eeme nakupovat v\u00edce dluhopis\u016f.<\/p>\n

Klasick\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy n\u00e1m p\u0159ijdou tak p\u0159edra\u017een\u00e9. Nekupujeme je nyn\u00ed v\u016fbec.<\/p>\n

Dluhopisy s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm rizikem, kter\u00e9 u\u017e jsou sv\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem n\u011bkde mezi dluhopisy a akciemi, v portfoli\u00edch m\u00e1me. Rozhodn\u011b\u00a0nekupujeme \u010desk\u00e9, kter\u00e9 nemaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd rating, ale\u00a0sv\u011btov\u00e9, kde v\u00edme co o\u010dek\u00e1vat.<\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc klient\u016fm, renti\u00e9r\u016fm, je\u0161t\u011b doporu\u010dujeme\u00a0proti-infla\u010dn\u00ed dluhopisy<\/a>. Ty maj\u00ed tu v\u00fdhodu, \u017ee pracuj\u00ed s inflac\u00ed. A t\u00edm jsou atraktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e klasick\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nejsme zase v roce 2000? Nenafukuje se op\u011bt bublina?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":1743,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[26,35],"yoast_head":"\nShillerovo P\/E \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee jsou akcie drah\u00e9. 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