{"id":1330,"date":"2020-09-01T13:00:58","date_gmt":"2020-09-01T11:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/?p=1330"},"modified":"2022-03-31T13:14:38","modified_gmt":"2022-03-31T11:14:38","slug":"inflace-vyskocila-jak-ochranit-penize","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/inflace-vyskocila-jak-ochranit-penize\/","title":{"rendered":"P\u0159es l\u00e9to inflace vysko\u010dila. Jak proti n\u00ed ochr\u00e1nit sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Inflace v \u010cR vzrostla. Posledn\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo z \u010dervence 2020 je 3,4%, co\u017e je docela dost.<\/p>\n

Dlouho jsme byli zvykl\u00ed, \u017ee inflace prakticky nebyla,v letech 2015 a 2016 byla prakticky nulov\u00e1.<\/p>\n

A te\u010f se objevuje. Objevuje se z\u00e1rove\u0148 v dob\u011b, kdy ekonomika pot\u0159ebuje sp\u00ed\u0161 pomoci, ne\u017e utlumovat.<\/p>\n

Zm\u011bna postoje \u010cesk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky<\/h2>\n

\u010cNB v z\u00e1sad\u011b u\u017e za\u010dala hovo\u0159it o tom, \u017ee se nebude inflaci sna\u017eit srazit, pokud se dostane nad p\u00e1smo, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 stanoven\u00e9. (Zdroj E15<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Minul\u00fd t\u00fdden se podobn\u011b vyj\u00e1d\u0159il i americk\u00fd FED a zm\u011bnil tak sv\u016fj postoj k inflaci. Bude akceptovat inflaci vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 2 procenta. (Zdroj WallStreetJournal<\/a>) K mo\u017en\u00fdm dopad\u016fm tohoto rozhodnut\u00ed se budu vyjad\u0159ovat v na\u0161em pravideln\u00e9m vys\u00edl\u00e1n\u00ed na YouTube<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Infla\u010dn\u00ed c\u00edl \u010cNB je dlouhodob\u011b 2 %.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Progn\u00f3za inflace \u010cNB ze srpna 2020<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Za norm\u00e1ln\u00edch okolnost\u00ed, kdy\u017e by inflace stoupla na 3 % a v\u00fd\u0161e, tak by se j\u00ed \u010cNB sna\u017eila sn\u00ed\u017eit. A to tak, \u017ee by za\u010dala zdra\u017eovat pen\u00edze tj. zvy\u0161ovala by \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. Co\u017e by ekonomiku trochu ochlazovalo a pom\u00e1halo inflaci udr\u017eet v p\u00e1smu, ve kter\u00e9m ji \u010cNB chce.<\/p>\n

Ale nyn\u00ed se viceguvern\u00e9r \u010cNB<\/span> Nidetzk\u00fd vyj\u00e1d\u0159il tak, \u017ee nebudou p\u0159\u00edmo reagovat na situaci, kdy bude inflace na horn\u00ed hranici toho p\u00e1sma a nebudou se j\u00ed sna\u017eit srazit.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1sah \u010cNB proti inflaci by likvidoval firmy<\/h2>\n

V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by \u010cNB za\u010dala zvy\u0161ovat \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, m\u011blo by to negativn\u00ed dopad na firmy, kter\u00e9 pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed \u00fav\u011bry.<\/p>\n

Firmy pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed m\u00edt n\u011bjakou likviditu, aby jim pomohla z krizov\u00e9 situace, kter\u00e1 nastala. Aby j\u00ed p\u0159e\u017eily.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee stav, kdy by jim \u010cNB zdra\u017eila \u00fav\u011bry, by pro n\u011b byl hodn\u011b negativn\u00ed. Proto je lep\u0161\u00ed n\u011bjakou dobu ponechat vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflaci a nezasahovat proti n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Inflace 3,4 % se nemus\u00ed zd\u00e1t p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 vysok\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Nen\u00e1padn\u00fd nep\u0159\u00edtel, kter\u00fd p\u016fsob\u00ed trval\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty<\/h2>\n

Ale kdy\u017e se takov\u00e1 inflace opakuje, tak v\u00e1m postupn\u011b uma\u017ee velkou \u010d\u00e1st vklad\u016f. A historick\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee inflace je jedno z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch rizik pro dlouhodob\u00e9ho investora, kter\u00e9 tady m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt.<\/p>\n

Riziko inflace je hodn\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 v tom, \u017ee inflace se nijak nevrac\u00ed<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e m\u00e1te propady na trz\u00edch a dr\u017e\u00edte diverzifikovan\u00e9 portfolio v akci\u00edch, tak dojde k propadu a po \u010dase zase k n\u011bjak\u00e9mu n\u00e1vratu. A v nejhor\u0161\u00edm mus\u00edte \u010dekat dlouho, ale trh se vr\u00e1t\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Kde\u017eto inflace se nikdy nevr\u00e1t\u00ed. Tam nem\u016f\u017eeme po\u010d\u00edtat s t\u00edm, \u017ee by p\u0159ich\u00e1zela n\u011bjak\u00e1 dlouh\u00e1 defla\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed, kdy by se\u00a0 hodnota pen\u011bz zase vracela zp\u00e1tky. \u017de by ceny \u0161ly dol\u016f. S t\u00edm po\u010d\u00edtat nelze.<\/p>\n

Inflace je nebezpe\u010dn\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee vlastn\u011b ub\u00edr\u00e1 pen\u00edze trvale. Je to trval\u00e1 ztr\u00e1ta. A m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pom\u011brn\u011b nen\u00e1padn\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Za deset let mohou b\u00fdt des\u00edtky procent portfolia pry\u010d, pokud ho budete m\u00edt t\u0159eba na spo\u0159ic\u00edch \u00fa\u010dtech. \u00daroky, kter\u00e9 vypl\u00e1cej\u00ed z vklad\u016f, toti\u017e v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b inflace zdaleka nedosahuj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e1 ochrana proti inflaci<\/h2>\n

My proto doporu\u010dujeme vyu\u017e\u00edvat st\u00e1tn\u00ed proti-infla\u010dn\u00ed dluhopisy<\/a>. Pokud m\u00e1te n\u011bjak\u00e9 pen\u00edze, kter\u00e9 hned na nic nepot\u0159ebujete a nemus\u00edte je m\u00edt nutn\u011b po ruce a m\u016f\u017eete je nechat le\u017eet 5 nebo 6 let.<\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 jsme s t\u00edm n\u011bkdy u\u017e tro\u0161ku otravn\u00ed, proto\u017ee o nich po\u0159\u00e1d mluv\u00edme. Ale pova\u017eujeme je za d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd n\u00e1stroj pro to, jak se v dne\u0161n\u00ed dob\u011b proti inflaci chr\u00e1nit.<\/p>\n

Z prvn\u00ed emise proti-infla\u010dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f ji\u017e m\u00e1me v\u00fdnos 3,65985 %.<\/p>\n

Term\u00edn pro n\u00e1kup nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed emise je 18. 9. 2020, tak si st\u00e1hn\u011bte na\u0161i anal\u00fdzu v\u010detn\u011b n\u00e1vodu pro n\u00e1kup<\/a>\u00a0a nev\u00e1hejte.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Proti-infla\u010dn\u00ed dluhopisy pat\u0159\u00ed do konzervativn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti portfolia. To znamen\u00e1 tam, kde nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 investovat agresivn\u011bji.<\/p>\n

Pokud byste toti\u017e za pen\u00edze, kter\u00e9 chcete m\u00edt k dispozici t\u0159eba za 3 roky, nakoupili akcie, tak by to bylo velmi nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9. A rizikov\u00e9. Proto je lep\u0161\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edt takov\u00fd n\u00e1stroj, jako jsou st\u00e1tn\u00ed proti-infla\u010dn\u00ed dluhopisy.<\/p>\n

Ty bereme jako takov\u00fd bezpe\u010dn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav a jako zaj\u00edmavou alternativu spo\u0159\u00edc\u00edch \u00fa\u010dt\u016f a term\u00ednovan\u00fdch vklad\u016f.<\/p>\n

Dlouhodob\u00e1 ochrana proti inflaci<\/h2>\n

Na dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu (10 let a v\u00edce), naopak vn\u00edm\u00e1me jako zp\u016fsob ochrany proti inflaci pr\u00e1v\u011b n\u00e1kup akci\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Proto\u017ee kdy\u017e rostou ceny vlivem inflace, tak firm\u00e1m rostou tr\u017eby. A to se projevuje tak\u00e9 na jejich zisc\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Akcie maj\u00ed dlouhodob\u011b tendenci proti inflaci chr\u00e1nit. Na rozd\u00edl od b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f, kde k tomu p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nedoch\u00e1z\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b maj\u00ed smysl nap\u0159. nemovitosti. My nemovitosti s na\u0161imi klienty nenakupujeme. Ale ur\u010dit\u011b jim \u0159\u00edk\u00e1me, \u017ee pokud maj\u00ed zaj\u00edmavou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost k n\u00e1kupu nemovitosti, tak nemovitost je v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu tak\u00e9 jeden ze zp\u016fsob\u016f, jak se ochr\u00e1nit proti inflaci.<\/p>\n

A samoz\u0159ejm\u011b tak\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed podnik\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Zlato pen\u00edze proti inflaci neochr\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h2>\n

P\u0159i pohledu na graf zlata vid\u00edme, \u017ee zlato je tak\u00e9 na sv\u00fdch vrcholech. M\u016f\u017eete proti inflaci pou\u017e\u00edt zlato?<\/p>\n

\"\"
Graf v\u00fdvoje ceny zlata – Finviz<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Hovo\u0159\u00ed se o tom, \u017ee zlato m\u00e1 ur\u010dit\u00e9 proti-infla\u010dn\u00ed tendence. T\u0159eba v 70. letech, kdy byla vysok\u00e1 inflace a ekonomick\u00e1 stagnace tzv. stagflace, tak cena zlata rostla hodn\u011b rychle. Tak\u017ee tam to fungovalo.<\/p>\n

J\u00e1 se ob\u00e1v\u00e1m u zlata, v t\u00e9to modern\u00ed dob\u011b, jedn\u00e9 v\u011bci. A to, \u017ee je to aktivum, kde se budou st\u0159\u00eddav\u011b vyfukovat a nafukovat bubliny.<\/p>\n

A nemus\u00ed se poda\u0159it, \u017ee se to nafouknut\u00ed a vyfouknut\u00ed bubliny shled\u00e1 s investi\u010dn\u00edm horizontem, kter\u00fd m\u00e1me.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee kdo za\u010dne nakupovat zlato, proto\u017ee chce sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze ochr\u00e1nit proti inflaci, tak ho m\u016f\u017ee nakoupit pom\u011brn\u011b draze. Proto\u017ee to ud\u011bl\u00e1 v dob\u011b, kdy ho nakupuj\u00ed v\u0161ichni okolo. A d\u00edky tomu spolehliv\u011b proti t\u00e9 inflaci fungovat nebude.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Graf v\u00fdvoje cena zlata od roku 1915 se zapo\u010dten\u00edm inflace – Macrotrends<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Jako nap\u0159\u00edklad t\u011bm, kte\u0159\u00ed ho nakupovali v letech 2010, 2011 nebo t\u011bm, kte\u0159\u00ed ho nakupovali v 70. letech a specificky za\u010d\u00e1tkem let 80t\u00fdch.<\/p>\n

V t\u00e9 dob\u011b bylo zlato na vrcholu. Pak jeho cena zkolabovala a n\u011bkolik des\u00edtek let trvalo, ne\u017e se cena vr\u00e1tila zase na p\u016fvodn\u00ed hodnotu. A ne\u017e se vr\u00e1tila v re\u00e1ln\u00fdch hodnot\u00e1ch, tak to trvalo je\u0161t\u011b o n\u011bco d\u00e9le ne\u017e v tom modern\u00edm boomu zlata, kter\u00fd jsme za\u017eili od roku 2003\/2004 do roku 2011.<\/p>\n

Jak se chov\u00e1 zlato<\/h2>\n

Zlato m\u00e1 tedy kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 periody, kdy hodn\u011b dramaticky roste. M\u016f\u017ee r\u016fst rychleji ne\u017e v\u0161echno ostatn\u00ed. A kdy\u017e se n\u011bkomu poda\u0159\u00ed takovou periodu vychytat, m\u016f\u017ee na tom ur\u010dit\u011b vyd\u011blat.<\/p>\n

Pak m\u00e1 ale tak\u00e9 obdob\u00ed, kdy prudce pad\u00e1 dol\u016f. To je pot\u00e9, co se vyfoukne bublina.<\/p>\n

Anebo u zlata m\u016f\u017eeme vid\u011bt del\u0161\u00ed obdob\u00ed, kdy se na n\u011bm ned\u011bje nic moc.<\/p>\n

Te\u010f jsme zrovna v obdob\u00ed, kdy roste. To znamen\u00e1, nach\u00e1z\u00edme se ve stavu, kdy n\u011bkdy nastane bublina. A m\u016f\u017ee se st\u00e1t, \u017ee na tom je\u0161t\u011b p\u016fjde slu\u0161n\u011b vyd\u011blat. Ale to u\u017e je do ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry spekulace.<\/p>\n

My rad\u011bji investujeme s dlouhodob\u00fdm v\u00fdhledem. Z toho pohledu je zlato jenom spekulace na to, \u017ee se v\u00e1m ho poda\u0159\u00ed prodat n\u011bkomu, kdo ho bude cht\u00edt v\u00edc ne\u017e vy. A bude za n\u011bj ochoten zaplatit v\u00edc. A takov\u00ed lid\u00e9 v ur\u010dit\u00e9 f\u00e1zi dojdou a pak dojde k tomu poklesu.<\/p>\n

2 d\u016fvody, pro\u010d lid\u00e9 p\u0159ijdou zlatem o pen\u00edze<\/h2>\n

Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee se n\u011bkomu poda\u0159ilo zlato nakoupit levn\u011b a n\u00e1sledn\u011b ho prod\u00e1, kdy\u017e jeho cena bude je\u0161t\u011b vysok\u00e1 a t\u00edm vychyt\u00e1 ten spr\u00e1vn\u00fd moment. Ten m\u016f\u017ee ur\u010dit\u011b je\u0161t\u011b na zlatu vyd\u011blat.<\/p>\n

J\u00e1 se ob\u00e1v\u00e1m, \u017ee \u0159ad\u011b lid\u00ed se to nepoda\u0159\u00ed. A nepoda\u0159\u00ed se jim to z n\u011bkolika d\u016fvod\u016f.<\/p>\n

1. Zlat\u00e1 bublina<\/h3>\n

Prvn\u00ed d\u016fvod je bublina, kter\u00e1 se nafukuje. A nejv\u00edce lid\u00ed do toho nasko\u010d\u00ed na vrcholu.<\/p>\n

T\u011b\u017eko \u0159\u00edct, kdy to bude. To si netrouf\u00e1m odhadovat. A kdybych jenom trochu tu\u0161il, tak by bylo nejjednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed na to reagovat a spekulovat. Ale netu\u0161\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee nechci \u0159\u00edkat, \u017ee na to m\u00e1m n\u011bjak\u00fd patent a v\u00edm, co se se zlatem stane. Skute\u010dn\u011b to nev\u00edm, jenom vid\u00edm, jak\u00e9 v\u011bci se na n\u011bm d\u011bj\u00ed obecn\u011b.<\/p>\n

2. Nep\u011bkn\u00e9 mar\u017ee prodejc\u016f zlata<\/h3>\n

Druh\u00e1 v\u011bc a nem\u00e9n\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 je, \u017ee \u0159ada lid\u00ed nakupuje zlato za ne \u00fapln\u011b v\u00fdhodn\u00fdch podm\u00ednek. Kdy\u017e cena zlata za\u010dne r\u016fst, tak se vyroj\u00ed \u0159ada prodejc\u016f. A ti zlato prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed s n\u011bjakou mar\u017e\u00ed. A za\u010dne se hovo\u0159it o r\u016fzn\u00fdch zlat\u00fdch spo\u0159en\u00edch, atd.<\/p>\n

U \u0159ady podobn\u00fdch produkt\u016f si pak spo\u010dtete, co kupujete a zjist\u00edte, \u017ee vlastn\u011b kupujete zlato za v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cenu, ne\u017e je jeho tr\u017en\u00ed cena. Proto\u017ee je tam mar\u017ee pro obchodn\u00edka. A ta obvykle b\u00fdv\u00e1 t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, \u010d\u00edm men\u0161\u00ed kous\u00ed\u010dek zlata se nakupuje.<\/p>\n

Jsou samoz\u0159ejm\u011b poctiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed obchodn\u00edci, kdy se mar\u017ee pohybuje t\u0159eba okolo 5 %. Ok, to je prost\u011b byznys. Ale kdy\u017e jsou to des\u00edtky procent, kdy\u017e zaplat\u00edte za zlato o des\u00edtky procent v\u00edc, ne\u017e je jeho sou\u010dasn\u00e1 cena, tak to u\u017e skute\u010dn\u011b v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 nen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V roce 2011 se \u0159ad\u011b lid\u00ed stalo, \u017ee v dob\u011b kdy se zlato prod\u00e1valo za 1800 dolar\u016f za unci, tak oni nakupovali za ceny nap\u0159\u00edklad 2100 – 2200 dolar\u016f za unci. Tedy v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u00fd\u0161.\u00a0 To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee tito lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed nakoupili zlato takto nev\u00fdhodn\u011b, tak se st\u00e1le je\u0161t\u011b dodne\u0161ka nedostali na sv\u00e9, i kdybychom ignorovali inflaci.<\/p>\n

Lid\u00e9 nav\u00edc \u010dasto zapom\u00ednaj\u00ed, \u017ee budou zase platit n\u011bjakou prodejn\u00ed mar\u017ei. A to pro n\u011b nen\u00ed dobr\u00e1 situace.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee pozor. Kdy\u017e u\u017e se n\u011bkdo rozhodne zlato nakupovat, je pot\u0159eba se tak\u00e9 v\u017edy pod\u00edvat i na n\u00e1klady a ty vz\u00edt do \u00favahy. A j\u00e1 se domn\u00edv\u00e1m, \u017ee \u0159ada lid\u00ed i d\u00edky pr\u00e1v\u011b tady t\u011bm n\u00e1klad\u016fm bude na zlatu tratit.<\/p>\n

Ale jak jsem \u0159\u00edkal. My zlato na\u0161im klient\u016fm nedoporu\u010dujeme. Ten d\u016fvod je, \u017ee zlato nen\u00ed aktivum, kter\u00e9 by n\u011bco p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161elo dlouhodob\u011b. Je to spekulace na kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd nebo st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00fd v\u00fdvoj. A to my nechceme d\u011blat.<\/p>\n

Ochra\u0148te se proti inflaci<\/h2>\n

\"\"Spr\u00e1vn\u00e1 ochrana proti inflaci, ale i dal\u0161\u00edm nebezpe\u010d\u00edm finan\u010dn\u00edho sv\u011bta, je investovat. A kdy\u017e investovat, tak v\u017edy s investi\u010dn\u00edm pl\u00e1nem. Investovat bez pl\u00e1nu je jako stav\u011bt d\u016fm bez pl\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n

Investi\u010dn\u00ed pl\u00e1n vych\u00e1z\u00ed z va\u0161ich c\u00edl\u016f a respektuje v\u00e1\u0161 emo\u010dn\u00ed profil.\u00a0D\u00e1v\u00e1 celkov\u00fd pohled na va\u0161e portfolio a rozd\u011bluje pen\u00edze na kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 a dlouhodob\u00e9. N\u00e1sledn\u011b s ohledem na diverzifikaci jasn\u011b \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, kdy, kolik a do \u010deho investovat.<\/p>\n

Video kurz: Jak investov\u00e1n\u00edm chr\u00e1nit sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze proti inflaci<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed hodnoty majetku o 3,4% u\u017e m\u016f\u017ee docela bolet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":1334,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[36,25],"yoast_head":"\nP\u0159es l\u00e9to inflace vysko\u010dila. 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