{"id":1301,"date":"2020-08-25T11:54:46","date_gmt":"2020-08-25T09:54:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/?p=1301"},"modified":"2022-03-31T13:19:38","modified_gmt":"2022-03-31T11:19:38","slug":"kdy-zacnou-trhy-reflektovat-realitu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/kdy-zacnou-trhy-reflektovat-realitu\/","title":{"rendered":"Kdy za\u010dnou trhy reflektovat realitu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Akciov\u00e9 trhy u\u017e n\u011bkolik m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f rostou. V posledn\u00edch dnech p\u0159ekonaly maxima ze za\u010d\u00e1tku roku.<\/p>\n

P\u0159itom v Americe i u n\u00e1s stoup\u00e1 po\u010det naka\u017een\u00fdch. Firm\u00e1m se neda\u0159\u00ed. Lid\u00e9 p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed o pr\u00e1ci.<\/p>\n

Vypad\u00e1 to, jako by si akcie \u017eily sv\u016fj \u017eivot ve sv\u00e9 virtu\u00e1ln\u00ed bublin\u011b a absolutn\u011b se jich nedot\u00fdkalo to, co vid\u00edme kolem sebe.<\/p>\n

A tak se nab\u00edz\u00ed ot\u00e1zka: Kdy za\u010dnou trhy reflektovat realitu?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0158ekl bych, \u017ee j\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem reflektuj\u00ed. A \u017ee se ned\u00e1 \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee by j\u00ed nereflektovali. Jen ji reflektuj\u00ed s ur\u010dit\u00fdm p\u0159edstihem.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed COVID-19<\/h2>\n

Pod\u00edv\u00e1me se na graf S&P 500, co\u017e je akciov\u00fd index 500 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch, na burze obchodovan\u00fdch podnik\u016f v USA…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2020 vid\u00edme r\u016fst, kter\u00fd v z\u00e1sad\u011b vych\u00e1zel ze situace ekonomick\u00e9ho r\u016fstu a r\u016fstu spot\u0159eby, podobn\u011b jako v minul\u00e9m roce. A z toho vych\u00e1z\u00ed v\u00fdhled, \u017ee to takto m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt i tento rok.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Do rostouc\u00edho trendu hodil vidle ani ne tak samotn\u00fd koronavirus, ale ekonomick\u00e1 resp. zdravotn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed \u201eproti \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed koronaviru\u201c. U\u017e koncem \u00fanora jsme v na\u0161\u00ed pravideln\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b klient\u016fm \u0159\u00edkali, \u017ee panika spojen\u00e1 s koronavirem m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed dopady ne\u017e nemoc<\/a>. To znamen\u00e1 m\u00e9n\u011b cestov\u00e1n\u00ed, vyhla\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed karant\u00e9ny a dramatick\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed spot\u0159eby. Lid\u00e9 z\u016fstali doma, m\u011bli strach z toho, co bude, nevych\u00e1zeli ven a to trh reflektoval.<\/p>\n

V n\u011bkter\u00fdch firm\u00e1ch byl vliv opat\u0159en\u00ed okam\u017eit\u011b negativn\u00ed nap\u0159. u aerolinek. U jin\u00fdch firem naopak pozitivn\u00ed nap\u0159. u technologick\u00fdch firem. Ale to nebylo vid\u011bt na \u010d\u00edslech. Celkov\u011b ten vliv za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me te\u010f a vid\u00edme ho ve v\u00fdsledc\u00edch a\u017e nyn\u00ed. Propady tr\u017eeb, propou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. Trh to o\u010dek\u00e1val, a proto za\u010dal v \u00fanoru a b\u0159eznu prudce padat.<\/p>\n

Akciov\u00fd trh se obecn\u011b hodn\u011b d\u00edv\u00e1 dop\u0159edu. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee sou\u010dasnou realitu vlastn\u011b uk\u00e1zal propad trhu, kter\u00fd jsme vid\u011bli pr\u00e1v\u011b v b\u0159eznu 2020.<\/p>\n

Byznys se vrac\u00ed do sv\u00fdch kolej\u00ed!?<\/h2>\n

N\u00e1sledn\u00fd r\u016fst, kter\u00fd v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch vid\u00edme, je postaven na o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee koronavirus odezn\u00ed. I t\u0159eba po n\u011bkolika vln\u00e1ch. Nakonec se v\u0161echno uklidn\u00ed. A spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 se vr\u00e1t\u00ed zp\u00e1tky ke spot\u0159eb\u011b a postupn\u011b se v\u0161e vr\u00e1t\u00ed zase do kolej\u00ed jako p\u0159ed t\u00edm. Z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka: jak rychle k tomu dojde?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

A jestli je trh v o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed optimistick\u00fd. To znamen\u00e1, zda p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee k n\u00e1vratu dojde rychleji, ne\u017e k tomu bude ve skute\u010dnosti. Pokud by se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee to tak je, pak by to znamenalo, \u017ee na akci\u00edch m\u016f\u017eeme o\u010dek\u00e1vat je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bjak\u00e9 korekce.<\/p>\n

Nebo naopak, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed trhu m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pesimistick\u00e9. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee k n\u00e1vratu k norm\u00e1lu m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt je\u0161t\u011b rychleji a to by pak\u00a0 m\u011blo na trh op\u011bt kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd pozitivn\u00ed vliv.<\/p>\n

Akciov\u00fd trh se d\u00edv\u00e1 do budoucnosti<\/h2>\n

Akciov\u00fd trh tedy ur\u010dit\u011b reflektuje realitu. Ne tu sou\u010dasnou, ale tu budouc\u00ed.\u00a0 V\u017edy se d\u00edv\u00e1 do budoucnosti.<\/p>\n

A je to proto, \u017ee akciov\u00fd trh jsou velk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti. Kdy\u017e chci koupit n\u011bjak\u00fd byznys (nez\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed jestli velk\u00fd nebo mal\u00fd) tak m\u011b v podstat\u011b tolik nezaj\u00edm\u00e1, jak se mu da\u0159\u00ed v tomto \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed. Zaj\u00edm\u00e1 m\u011b p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm, jak\u00fd bude m\u00edt v\u00fdvoj.<\/p>\n

Proto\u017ee chci tento podnik dr\u017eet do budoucna. \u010cerpat z n\u011bj dividendy nebo ho p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b d\u00e1le prodat. Proto m\u011b zaj\u00edm\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161e v\u00fdhled do budoucna.<\/p>\n

Kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd pohled je zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed<\/h3>\n

Dejme si za p\u0159\u00edklad firmu, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 te\u010f \u00fa\u017easn\u00e9 \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed. Ale d\u00e1 se o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee u\u017e se tyto v\u00fdsledky nebudou opakovat a jej\u00ed v\u00fdvoj bude \u0161patn\u00fd. Jej\u00ed hodnota tedy bude mal\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Naopak m\u00e1me firmu, kter\u00e1 je moment\u00e1ln\u011b t\u0159eba i ve ztr\u00e1t\u011b. D\u016fvodem m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt to, \u017ee hodn\u011b investuje do r\u016fzn\u00fdch inovac\u00ed atd. Ale pr\u00e1v\u011b d\u00edky t\u011bm inovac\u00edm se j\u00ed poda\u0159\u00ed na trhu prorazit. Takov\u00e1 firma m\u016f\u017ee velkou hodnotu.<\/p>\n

V budoucnu jej\u00ed zisky a tr\u017eby porostou a bude pro sv\u00e9 majitele (akcion\u00e1\u0159e) zaj\u00edmav\u00e1. Anebo t\u0159eba tam bude n\u011bjak\u00fd zaj\u00edmav\u00fd exit. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ji koup\u00ed jin\u00e1 spole\u010dnost za zaj\u00edmavou cenu. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto, \u017ee ta firma, kter\u00e1 inovuje, bude m\u00edt n\u011bco hodnotn\u00e9ho pro velkou spole\u010dnost, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 spoustu pen\u011bz.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e nap\u0159\u00edklad Facebook v roce 2012 koupil Instagram a zaplatil za n\u011bj 1 miliardu dolar\u016f part\u011b nad\u0161en\u00fdch v\u00fdvoj\u00e1\u0159\u016f, tak si mnoz\u00ed \u0165ukali na \u010delo. Instagram v t\u00e9 dob\u011b nem\u011bl \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 tr\u017eby. Ani n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed rok. Ale posledn\u00ed roky se na tr\u017eb\u00e1ch Facebooku pod\u00edl\u00ed velkou m\u011brou a jen za rok 2019 p\u0159inesl 20 miliard v tr\u017eb\u00e1ch (zdroj Bloomberg<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Kdo um\u00ed l\u00e9pe p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst budoucnost<\/h2>\n

Akciov\u00fd trh je o pohledu do dalek\u00e9 budoucnosti. Kdy\u017e chci nakupovat akcie firem, je pot\u0159eba d\u00edvat se na to, jak se t\u011bm firm\u00e1m bude da\u0159it v budoucnu. To je p\u0159\u00edstup, kter\u00fd je bl\u00edzk\u00fd i n\u00e1m.<\/p>\n

I my se d\u00edv\u00e1me na to, jak se firm\u00e1m bude da\u0159it v budoucnu. Za rok, za p\u011bt let, za des\u00edtky let. A v tomto ohledu jsme pozitivn\u00ed. V\u011b\u0159\u00edme, \u017ee kapitalismus bude fungovat i nad\u00e1le a firmy si porad\u00ed s ka\u017edou situaci. Podobn\u011b jako si poradily v des\u00edtk\u00e1ch let p\u0159ed t\u00edm. N\u011bkter\u00e9 zv\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed, n\u011bkter\u00e9 padnou a n\u011bkter\u00e9 nov\u00e9 se teprve objev\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Z pohledu kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch investor\u016f a spekulant\u016f je budoucnost samoz\u0159ejm\u011b velk\u00e1 nezn\u00e1m\u00e1. Nikdo p\u0159esn\u011b nev\u00ed, co n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Proto existuj\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9 modely a ukazatele (nap\u0159. pom\u011brn\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00e9 P\/E<\/a>), kter\u00e9 se trh a firmy na n\u011bm sna\u017e\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem ocenit. Ale ne v\u017edy se jim to poda\u0159\u00ed. Po\u0159\u00e1d je v tom ur\u010dit\u00fd prvek nezn\u00e1ma. A proto akciov\u00fd trh kol\u00eds\u00e1. Proto\u017ee kdyby v\u0161echno bylo zn\u00e1mo, tak by d\u016fvody ke kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed nebyly.<\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc se do ukazatel\u016f a \u010d\u00edsel na kr\u00e1tkodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edm horizontu p\u0159id\u00e1vaj\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b emoce lid\u00ed. Lid\u00e9 mohou b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 optimisti\u010dt\u00ed, nebo p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pesimisti\u010dt\u00ed a t\u00edm kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b hn\u00e1t trh nahoru nebo dol\u016f.<\/p>\n

Realita u\u017e je v trz\u00edch zapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1na<\/h2>\n

Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee realita je u\u017e v trhu reflektov\u00e1na. Ale ne sou\u010dasn\u00e1. Jde o v\u00fdhled na budoucnost. A pr\u00e1v\u011b proto, \u017ee budoucnost je nejist\u00e1, tak kv\u016fli tomu doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V \u010dem jsou podle v\u00e1s trhy odtr\u017een\u00e9 od reality?<\/h3>\n

Video kurz: Unik\u00e1tn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k investov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u017dij\u00ed akcie ve sv\u00e9 virtu\u00e1ln\u00ed bublin\u011b a absolutn\u011b se jich nedot\u00fdk\u00e1 to, co vid\u00edme kolem sebe?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":1309,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[26,28],"yoast_head":"\nKdy za\u010dnou trhy reflektovat realitu - InvestGuru.cz<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fichtner.cz\/kdy-zacnou-trhy-reflektovat-realitu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kdy za\u010dnou trhy reflektovat realitu\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u017dij\u00ed akcie ve sv\u00e9 virtu\u00e1ln\u00ed bublin\u011b a absolutn\u011b se jich nedot\u00fdk\u00e1 to, co vid\u00edme kolem sebe?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.fichtner.cz\/kdy-zacnou-trhy-reflektovat-realitu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"InvestGuru.cz\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Fichtner-sro-185375650667\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-08-25T09:54:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-03-31T11:19:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/trhy-realita-social.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"628\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Tom\u00e1\u0161 Tyl\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Napsal(a)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Tom\u00e1\u0161 Tyl\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Odhadovan\u00e1 doba \u010dten\u00ed\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minut\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.fichtner.cz\/kdy-zacnou-trhy-reflektovat-realitu\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/kdy-zacnou-trhy-reflektovat-realitu\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Tom\u00e1\u0161 Tyl\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/#\/schema\/person\/4d8985f26302181f017af803fa3328d4\"},\"headline\":\"Kdy za\u010dnou trhy reflektovat realitu\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-08-25T09:54:46+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-03-31T11:19:38+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/kdy-zacnou-trhy-reflektovat-realitu\/\"},\"wordCount\":1227,\"commentCount\":6,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.fichtner.cz\/kdy-zacnou-trhy-reflektovat-realitu\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/trhy-realita-blog.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"akcie\",\"koronavirus\"],\"articleSection\":[\"\u010cl\u00e1nky\"],\"inLanguage\":\"cs\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.fichtner.cz\/kdy-zacnou-trhy-reflektovat-realitu\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/kdy-zacnou-trhy-reflektovat-realitu\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.fichtner.cz\/kdy-zacnou-trhy-reflektovat-realitu\/\",\"name\":\"Kdy za\u010dnou trhy reflektovat realitu - 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