{"id":1203,"date":"2020-08-06T13:00:29","date_gmt":"2020-08-06T11:00:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/?p=1203"},"modified":"2020-08-07T10:55:33","modified_gmt":"2020-08-07T08:55:33","slug":"ukazatel-pe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investguru.cz\/cs\/ukazatel-pe\/","title":{"rendered":"Co je P\/E? Jak\u00e9 m\u00e1 v\u00fdhody a jak\u00e1 \u00faskal\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2>P\u0159epis videa<\/h2>\nExistuje jeden velmi jednoduch\u00fd ukazatel, podle kter\u00e9ho pozn\u00e1me, jestli jsou akcie levn\u00e9 nebo drah\u00e9.<\/p>\nM\u00e1 v\u0161ak samoz\u0159ejm\u011b sv\u00e9 \u00faskal\u00ed. Jeho vyu\u017eit\u00ed je, jak se \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201eOdsud-Posud\u201d.<\/p>\nKdy\u017e investujeme do akci\u00ed, je dobr\u00e9 investovat za rozumnou cenu. Proto\u017ee kdy\u017e do trhu vstoup\u00edm, kdy\u017e jsou akcie p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 drah\u00e9, tak m\u016f\u017eu relativn\u011b dlouho \u010dekat na to, a\u017e mi spln\u00ed ten o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd v\u00fdnos.<\/p>\nNen\u00ed to o \u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed investice. Ale sp\u00ed\u0161 o \u00faprav\u011b investi\u010dn\u00ed strategie. Kdy\u017e jsou akcie dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed, mohu sp\u00ed\u0161 kupovat v\u00edce jin\u00e1 aktiva. Kdy\u017e jsou akcie levn\u00e9, m\u016f\u017eu t\u0159eba d\u00e1t i 100% sv\u00e9ho portfolia do akci\u00ed.<\/p>\nDobr\u00fd den, jmenuji se Ale\u0161 Prandstetter a jsem v\u00fdkonn\u00fdm \u0159editelem <a href=\"https:\/\/www.efrank.cz\/cs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">eFrank.cz<\/a>, kde rad\u00edme klient\u016fm, jak nejl\u00e9pe investovat a jak udr\u017eet a z\u00edskat svoji rentu.<\/p>\nNa finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch se pohybuji v\u00edce ne\u017e 25 let. A za tu dobu jsem pracoval s r\u016fzn\u00fdmi ukazateli. A s r\u016fzn\u00fdmi matematick\u00fdmi modely. Ty b\u00fdvaj\u00ed \u010dasto pom\u011brn\u011b slo\u017eit\u00e9, ale n\u011bkdy si lze pomoci velice jednodu\u0161e.<\/p>\nA\u0165 u\u017e na \u0161kole nebo v odborn\u00fdch knih\u00e1ch, jeden ukazatel \u201evl\u00e1dne v\u0161em\u201c…<\/p>\n<h2>Pom\u011br ceny a zisku<\/h2>\nJe to tzn. \u201eprice-to-earnings ratio\u201c. Nebo tak\u00e9 \u201eukazatel cena ku zisk\u201c. Cena akcie ku zisku akcie. Nebo tak\u00e9 n\u011bkdy famili\u00e9rn\u011b naz\u00fdvan\u00e9 P\u00ed-\u00cd\u010dko.<\/p>\nCo n\u00e1m tento ukazatel m\u016f\u017ee \u0159\u00edct? \nA jak\u00e1 jsou jeho \u00faskal\u00ed? \nKdy se na n\u011bj m\u016f\u017eeme spolehnout? \nA kdy naopak n\u00e1m m\u016f\u017ee d\u00e1t velmi zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed odpov\u011bdi?<\/p>\nPoj\u010fme se na to pod\u00edvat.<\/p>\n<h2>Jednoduch\u00fd a rychl\u00fd ukazatel<\/h2>\nS\u00edla ukazatele P\/E spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v jeho jednoduchosti. Tud\u00ed\u017e obvykle je velmi vhodn\u00fd na to, kdy\u017e d\u011bl\u00e1me n\u011bjak\u00e9 porovn\u00e1n\u00ed. Porovn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi firmami. Anebo celkov\u011b pozorujeme cel\u00fd trh. Jak je cel\u00fd trh drah\u00fd p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b levn\u00fd.<\/p>\nJ\u00e1 jsem se s ukazatelem P\/E setkal poprv\u00e9 u\u017e na \u0161kole, kdy\u017e jsem se zab\u00fdvali finan\u010dn\u00ed anal\u00fdzou. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b s\u00edla ukazatele P\/E je pr\u00e1v\u011b v rychlosti pohledu.<\/p>\nTen pohled je relativn\u011b p\u0159esn\u00fd. Pokud si op\u011bt uv\u011bdomujeme p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e1 omezen\u00ed tohoto jednoduch\u00e9ho ukazatele.<\/p>\nUkazatel P\/E mi t\u0159eba pomohl, kdy\u017e jsme d\u011blali velk\u00fd p\u0159ehled americk\u00e9ho akciov\u00e9ho trhu. Mysl\u00edm \u017ee to bylo v \u010cSOB, kdy\u017e jsem je\u0161t\u011b pracoval v \u010cSOB Asset Managementu, tak jsme byli schopni \npom\u011brn\u011b rychle n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem srovnat investi\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti. A d\u00e1t velmi rychlou n\u011bjakou odpov\u011b\u010f na to, jak si ten trh stoj\u00ed. A co je t\u0159eba dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed na tom trhu. A co je levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Pak n\u00e1sledn\u00fd krok samoz\u0159ejm\u011b byla n\u011bjak\u00e1 hlub\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdza.<\/p>\nAle ten rychl\u00fd pohled je ob\u010das d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd. Proto\u017ee n\u011bkdy pot\u0159ebujete rychlou odpov\u011b\u010f.<\/p>\nA nen\u00ed \u010das na to se \u201edlouho vrtat v \u010d\u00edslech\u201c. Proto\u017ee v\u00e1m t\u0159eba ta p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost m\u016f\u017ee ut\u00e9ci.<\/p>\nPoj\u010fme si \u0159\u00edct, co P\/E vlastn\u011b je.<\/p>\n<h2>Co se skr\u00fdv\u00e1 za P a E<\/h2>\nMy o P\/E \u010dasto mluv\u00edme v \u201eP\u0159e\u010detli jsme za V\u00e1s\u201d, \u201eValuace\u201d nebo jin\u00fdch relac\u00edch, kter\u00e9 publikujeme v r\u00e1mci servisu pro klienty. O n\u011bj se op\u00edr\u00e1me, jako o takov\u00fd ten hlavn\u00ed ukazatel, kdy si \u0159\u00edk\u00e1me, jestli trh je p\u0159edra\u017een\u00fd, nebo naopak levn\u00fd.<\/p>\nJak u\u017e jsem \u0159ekl, je to pom\u011br ceny ku zisku. Cena, za kterou je akcie obchodovan\u00e9. A zisk, kter\u00fd ta akcie generuje.<\/p>\nPou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 se specificky u akci\u00ed. On se d\u00e1 samoz\u0159ejm\u011b pou\u017e\u00edt u lec\u010dehos.<\/p>\n<h2>P\/E je p\u0159evr\u00e1cen\u00e1 v\u00fdnosnost<\/h2>\nKdy\u017e m\u00e1m n\u00e1jem z nemovitosti s \u010distou v\u00fdnosnost\u00ed 5%, tak je cena ku zisku u t\u00e9 nemovitosti, kdy\u017e si vezmu, \u017ee ten \u010dist\u00fd n\u00e1jem je m\u016fj zisk. Tak p\u0159i 5 % v\u00fdnosnosti by P\/E bylo 20. Ale u nemovitost\u00ed se nepou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1.<\/p>\nObecn\u011b u t\u011bch investic, kter\u00e9 nesou stabiln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjem, tak se P\/E nepou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1. Proto\u017ee to ned\u00e1v\u00e1 moc smysl. A je to mo\u017en\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161 takov\u00fd \u00fazus. Pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 se prost\u011b v\u00fdnosnost.<\/p>\nM\u016f\u017eeme si to p\u0159ev\u00e9st i na podnik\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\nKdy\u017e m\u016fj podnik tvo\u0159\u00ed zisk 1 milion ka\u017ed\u00fd rok, a j\u00e1 m\u00e1m p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost ho t\u0159eba prodat za 20 milion\u016f. Je to zaj\u00edmav\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost, proto\u017ee ho prod\u00e1v\u00e1m za P\/E 20. Vlastn\u011b 20 ku 1. 20 je cena, za kterou prod\u00e1v\u00e1m sv\u016fj podnik. A 1 milion \u010dist\u00e9ho zisku mi ten podnik b\u011b\u017en\u011b vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\nTak\u017ee takto to m\u016f\u017eeme aplikovat i na akcie.<\/p>\nAkcie, kter\u00e1 vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed zisk, dejme tomu 100 dolar\u016f na akcii, stoj\u00ed 2000 dolar\u016f. P\/E je 20. Je to velmi jednoduch\u00e9.<\/p>\nM\u016f\u017eu ten pom\u011br samoz\u0159ejm\u011b obr\u00e1tit a t\u00edm z\u00edsk\u00e1m v\u00fdnosnost. Kdy\u017e vyd\u011bl\u00edm 100\/2000, dostanu 5 %.<\/p>\nAle jak jsem \u0159ekl, u akci\u00ed se pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161 ukazatel P\/E.<\/p>\nA pro\u010d se vlastn\u011b pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1? Pro\u010d se nepou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 t\u0159eba v\u00fdnosnost?<\/p>\nU akci\u00ed nen\u00ed ani tak zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed P\/E, ale sp\u00ed\u0161 se pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 k modelov\u00e1n\u00ed do budoucna.<\/p>\n<h2>Ford versus Tesla<\/h2>\nMo\u017en\u00e1 stoj\u00ed za to si uv\u00e9st dva takov\u00e9 zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edklady. Zase si vezmu americk\u00fd trh.<\/p>\nFord Motor. Jedna z nejstar\u0161\u00edch automobilek na sv\u011bt\u011b, u kter\u00e9 je o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd zisk p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok n\u011bjak\u00fdch 40 cent\u016f, mysl\u00edm.<\/p>\nA proti tomu Tesla. Modern\u00ed automobilka, o kter\u00e9 se po\u0159\u00e1d mluv\u00ed. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee zisk o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok je 4 centy na akcii.<\/p>\nNicm\u00e9n\u011b akcie Fordu stoj\u00ed 6 dolar\u016f. Akcie Tesly stoj\u00ed 1500 dolar\u016f.<\/p>\nJak je to mo\u017en\u00e9?<\/p>\nDe facto plat\u00ed, \u017ee u Fordu, jedn\u00e9 automobilky, je P\/E n\u011bjak\u00fdch 14. Zat\u00edmco u Tesly je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 400.<\/p>\n\u010cili j\u00e1 dneska kupuji Teslu, akcie Tesly, za 400 n\u00e1sobek jejich zisk\u016f p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok. Co\u017e se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt tot\u00e1ln\u00ed nesmysl.<\/p>\nNicm\u00e9n\u011b ta projekce zisku ukazuje, \u017ee Tesla by m\u011bla sv\u00e9 zisky velmi rychle zvy\u0161ovat. Zhruba tempem trojn\u00e1sobek. A dal\u0161\u00ed rok op\u011bt t\u0159eba 3-4 n\u00e1sobek.<\/p>\nA kdy\u017e se potom pod\u00edv\u00e1me potom na to P\/E, do v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vzd\u00e1lenosti, zjist\u00edme, \u017ee v roce 2023, 2024 u\u017e bude Tesla relativn\u011b levn\u00e1. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee se spln\u00ed ty odv\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny a Tesla bude velmi ziskov\u00e1 automobilka. Dejme tomu pomalu nejziskov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed na sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/p>\n<h2>Z\u00e1sadn\u00ed probl\u00e9m p\u0159i ur\u010den\u00ed P\/E<\/h2>\nProbl\u00e9m p\u0159i ur\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed ukazatele P\/E nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ani tak v cen\u011b, v tom \u201eP\u201c. \u201eP\u201c je cena a je zn\u00e1m\u00e1. Cenu vid\u00edme na burze. Nebo o n\u00ed m\u00e1me v\u011bt\u0161inou n\u011bjak\u00e9 informace. Probl\u00e9m je v tom jmenovateli toho zlomku. V t\u011bch zisc\u00edch.<\/p>\nZa prv\u00e9 je n\u011bkdy v\u016fbec nem\u00e1me. Firma m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt ztr\u00e1tov\u00e1.<\/p>\nMluvil jsem tady o Tesle, kter\u00e1 vlastn\u011b posledn\u00ed rok nebo minul\u00fd rok je\u0161t\u011b byla ztr\u00e1tov\u00e1. A tam nem\u016f\u017eeme ur\u010dit to \u201eP\/E\u201c. Je z\u00e1porn\u00e9, ned\u00e1v\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd smysl. \u010cili tam se mus\u00edme koukat vylo\u017een\u011b \ndo budoucnosti.<\/p>\nSamoz\u0159ejm\u011b, pokud zisky odhadujeme, tak tam m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pom\u011brn\u011b velk\u00e1 chybovost. M\u016f\u017ee se n\u00e1m bu\u010f splnit ten n\u00e1\u0161 odhad, nebo b\u00fdt lep\u0161\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 hor\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\nM\u00e1me i n\u011bjak\u00e9 \u00fa\u010detn\u00ed p\u0159edpisy, kter\u00e9 mohou ty firmy v\u00edce \u010di m\u00e9n\u011b dodr\u017eovat. M\u016f\u017eou si tak s t\u00edm tro\u0161ku hr\u00e1t.<\/p>\nTak\u017ee ne v\u017edycky ten zisk m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt \u00fapln\u011b odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed t\u00e9 skute\u010dnosti. I kdy\u017e samoz\u0159ejm\u011b ty \u00fa\u010detn\u00ed standardy jsou st\u00e1le vylep\u0161ovan\u00e9 a st\u00e1le p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\nNicm\u00e9n\u011b po\u0159\u00e1d n\u011bkter\u00e9 firmy maj\u00ed skryt\u00e9 rezervy. N\u011bkter\u00e9 zase naopak vykazuj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed zisk, ne\u017e je ten \u00fapln\u011b skute\u010dn\u00fd.<\/p>\nTak\u017ee to je jedno z t\u011bch pom\u011brn\u011b velk\u00fdch \u00faskal\u00ed tohoto jednoduch\u00e9ho ukazatele.<\/p>\n<h2>Dal\u0161\u00ed \u00faskal\u00ed ukazatele P\/E<\/h2>\nDal\u0161\u00edm \u00faskal\u00edm je to, \u017ee kv\u016fli sv\u00e9 jednoduchosti bere v potaz jen veli\u010dinu zisku. Nebere v potaz veli\u010dinu pen\u011b\u017en\u00edho toku na akcii. Co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt dost velk\u00fd rozd\u00edl.<\/p>\nStejn\u011b tak podobn\u00fdm \u00faskal\u00edm je i ten ur\u010dit\u00fd statick\u00fd obr\u00e1zek.<\/p>\nTesla te\u010f m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt P\/E 400, \u0159eknu si: \u201eJe to hrozn\u011b drah\u00e9, nebudu to kupovat.\u201c Ale n\u011bkdo m\u00e1 mo\u017en\u00e1 pravdu v tom, \u017ee za 3-4 roky p\u0159i t\u00e9to cen\u011b ta automobilka bude velmi levn\u00e1. Tak\u017ee ta cena p\u016fjde je\u0161t\u011b pr\u00e1v\u011b nahoru podle toho, jak se budou zisky zvy\u0161ovat.<\/p>\nA samoz\u0159ejm\u011b je pot\u0159eba nekoukat se jenom na \u010d\u00edslo P\/E, ale tro\u0161ku vid\u011bt i to pozad\u00ed a vid\u011bt i tu projekci do budoucna. V tom je to velmi d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9.<\/p>\nTento ukazatel je i v dne\u0161n\u00ed dob\u011b tro\u0161ku problematick\u00fd.<\/p>\n<h2>COVID-19, krize a P\/E<\/h2>\nP\u0159i\u0161la koronakrize. Spousty firem se velmi citeln\u011b dotkla. Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na sou\u010dasn\u00e1 P\/E, tak vid\u00edme, \u017ee jsou pom\u011brn\u011b vysok\u00e1.<\/p>\nP\/E cel\u00e9ho trhu dosahuje v Americe t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 30. A to znamen\u00e1 u\u017e relativn\u011b drah\u00fd trh. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b je pot\u0159eba vid\u011bt pr\u00e1v\u011b tu \u010dasovou souslednost.<\/p>\nSamoz\u0159ejm\u011b kdyby m\u011bla tato krize trvat del\u0161\u00ed dobu a zisky, to \u201eE\u201c, by se nevzpamatovaly, tak pak ten trh je velmi drah\u00fd a t\u011b\u017eko \u0159\u00edct, jestli by nebylo lep\u0161\u00ed z akci\u00ed tro\u0161ku ustoupit.<\/p>\nNicm\u00e9n\u011b pr\u00e1v\u011b ty p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, jak se firmy s touto situac\u00ed vyrovnaj\u00ed, a jak se s n\u00ed vyrovn\u00e1 cel\u00fd sv\u011bt, jsou pom\u011brn\u011b optimistick\u00e9.<\/p>\nA pokud dejme tomu ten pokles zisku bude z\u00e1le\u017eitost maxim\u00e1ln\u011b jednoho roku, tak pak vlastn\u011b se zase kouk\u00e1me na to tzv. dop\u0159edn\u00e9 P\/E.<\/p>\nA tam u\u017e podle t\u011bch odhad\u016f vid\u00edme, \u017ee ten ukazatel d\u00e1v\u00e1 n\u011bjak\u00e9 norm\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnoty, p\u0159i kter\u00fdch se vyplat\u00ed, nebo d\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl investovat do akciov\u00e9ho trhu.<\/p>\n<h2>Shrnut\u00ed<\/h2>\n\u010cili je pot\u0159eba si \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee P\/E, ukazatel ceny ku zisku, je velmi u\u017eite\u010dn\u00fd. Ale je pot\u0159eba ho br\u00e1t v souvislostech. Nikdy ne samostatn\u011b. A na z\u00e1klad\u011b jednoho \u010d\u00edsla ud\u011blat n\u011bjak\u00fd \u00fasudek. V\u017edycky je pot\u0159eba koukat i na to okol\u00ed.<\/p>\n<h3>Zn\u00e1te u\u017e P\u00ed-\u00cd\u010dko dlouho? Nebo je pro v\u00e1s novinkou? Nebo jej dokonce pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1te?<\/h3>\nNapi\u0161te mi koment\u00e1\u0159, ur\u010dit\u011b si ho r\u00e1d p\u0159e\u010dtu. A t\u0159eba se m\u016f\u017eeme o P\/E d\u00e1l bavit.<\/p>\nPamatujte tedy, \u017ee investov\u00e1n\u00ed nen\u00ed jenom o jednom ukazateli. Nebo o jednom n\u00e1padu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Seznamte se s velmi jednoduch\u00fdm ukazatelem, podle kter\u00e9ho pozn\u00e1te, jestli jsou akcie levn\u00e9 nebo drah\u00e9<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":1210,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[26,35],"yoast_head":"\n<title>Co je P\/E? 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